Rohingya Crisis and Repatriation Strategy: BNP’s Roadmap from Burden to Bargaining Power

1 August 2025




Bangladesh now hosts more than one million Rohingya refugees, the world’s largest stateless

population. At the same time, two powerful neighbours—China and India—are racing to

connect the Bay of Bengal to their heartlands through the very region that produced this crisis.

The China–Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) is carving a route from the Kyaukphyu

deep-sea port in Rakhine to Yunnan, while India is building the Kaladan Multi-Modal Project

and expanding the BBIN corridor to reach its Northeast. These twin developments turn the

Rohingya tragedy into both a national burden and a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

Past Diplomacy: Applause Without Leverage

In 2017, as refugees poured across the Naf River, political allies of the then-government

floated the idea that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina deserved a Nobel Peace Prize for

sheltering the Rohingya. The image of a “Mother of Humanity” captured headlines, but the

policy that followed produced little leverage: a bilateral repatriation deal with Myanmar carried

no UN supervision, no citizenship guarantees, and no enforcement mechanism. China

accelerated CMEC construction; India advanced Kaladan and secured access to Chattogram

and Mongla. Bangladesh gained international sympathy but no binding transit rights or

economic offsets.

The current Interim Government has managed humanitarian aid competently, yet as a

caretaker administration set to leave in February, it lacks the mandate to push corridor

negotiations or mount sustained multilateral pressure.

BNP’s 31-Point Plan: Three Critical Commitments

BNP’s 31-Point Plan and its detailed Rohingya Crisis and Repatriation Strategy offer a

disciplined response. Three points—26, 27 and 28—form the backbone of a strategy that

transforms geography into power:

Point 26 – UN-Supervised Repatriation

All Rohingya returns must be voluntary, safe, dignified and sustainable, monitored by the

United Nations to prevent the failures of past bilateral experiments.

Point 27 – International Justice & Coordinated Pressure

Bangladesh will recognise the atrocities as genocide, back prosecutions at the International

Criminal Court (ICC) and International Court of Justice (ICJ), and mobilise the UN, ASEAN,

OIC, EU and the U.S. Burma Act to force Myanmar into genuine compliance.Point 28 – Trade for Justice

Bangladesh will engage ASEAN and BIMSTEC to protect refugee rights while negotiating

transit rights, energy agreements, and investment packages—with both China and India—and

make every concession conditional on verifiable progress on repatriation.

India Gateway and China Corridor: Two Levers, One Strategy

The plan recognises that Bangladesh sits between two competing gateways: China’s CMEC

promises pipelines and rail links from Kyaukphyu to Yunnan. India’s Kaladan project and

BBIN network aim to move cargo through Chattogram and Mongla into the Indian Northeast.

A BNP government can leverage this dual competition. Delhi wants secure, cost-efficient

access; Beijing wants a friendly coast. By linking corridor participation to Rohingya

repatriation benchmarks, Dhaka can demand investment, energy offtake, and regional transit

rights while securing safe return for refugees.

From Symbolism to Statecraft

BNP’s approach replaces prestige diplomacy with results-oriented statecraft: UN verification

before any refugee move, legal accountability to keep Myanmar’s generals on the defensive,

and economic bargaining that turns geography into currency and delivers jobs, lower energy

costs, and infrastructure upgrades at home.

The Broader Fit

The same 31-Point Plan calls for economic liberalisation, export diversification, and

modernised ports and transport corridors. These reforms ensure that when transit rights and

energy deals are secured, Bangladesh has the capacity to profit from them.

Conclusion

The Rohingya crisis is more than a humanitarian emergency; it is the sharpest test of

Bangladesh’s ability to turn moral responsibility into national advantage. BNP’s

strategy—anchored in Points 26, 27, and 28—offers a clear path: secure safe repatriation

under UN oversight, pursue international justice, and negotiate corridor access with China

and India on Bangladesh’s terms. It is a plan for measurable gains, not medals—a blueprint to

turn a refugee burden into a foundation for regional power.


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